The Horn of Africa


image of horn The Horn of Africa, as shown on the right, includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan (some scholars also include Kenya and Uganda in this list). Over the past few decades it has notoriously become known as one of the most conflict ridden areas in the world.

Why? Somalia is a failed state and has been so since the Siad Barre regime fell in 1991. Sudan is recovering from a decades-long civil war and could return to conflict when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement expires in 2011. On top of that the government in Khartoum has been accused of genocide in the Darfur region and President Omar al-Bashir has recently been indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity. And Ethiopia and Eritrea have been arguing over a heated border dispute since 1991, which escalated to full-scale conventional war from 1998-2000. Additionally, the government in Kenya, after several years of perceived success, collapsed into turmoil during the December 2007 presidential elections.

The goal of this website is to provide an in depth analysis of daily political events that affect the region. In order to achieve this I will provide a more nuanced approach to looking at peace and conflict in the Horn. This approach will include a review of local newspaper accounts, international news stories, academic articles and policy reports. Hopefully, this website will be used by others as a source for research and discussion on all issues related to conflict, peace and security in East Africa.

If you have any questions or would like to discuss some of these issues further, please email me at jturitto@gmail.com.


Sunday, April 12, 2009

In Somalia, Lawlessness on Land Leads to Lawlessness on the Seas

Somali pirates are in the news once again, capturing six shipping vessels in the Indian Ocean this week.  That is a total of 66 vessels on the year, with 16 still in the pirates hands.

This is particularly alarming for two reasons. One of the boats, the Maersk Alabama, is American owned and operated, and an American captain has been taken as ransom. It also illustrates that a few cavalier pirates have been able to outmaneuver a large international force of naval warships.

General David Petraeus announced the addition of more American warships on Thursday, sayinging  “we want to ensure that we have all the capability that might be needed over the course of the coming days.”  

Petraeus’ recent reaction to rescue Captain Richard Phillips is indicative of much greater problems facing U.S. policy toward Somalia. Additional warships to police the waters off the coast of Somalia do little to change the anarchistic environment that allows piracy to thrive.

When confronted with pirates off the coast of West Africa in 1841, British Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston said, “Taking a wasps' nest...is more effective than catching the wasps one by one.”

The U.S. must seek out the wasps’ nest. Finding security in Somalia is the key to finding a solution to the world’s piracy problem. War has long plagued the country for 18 years. And now, extreme lawlessness on land has led to lawlessness on the seas. The United States should engage Somalia and seek political solutions in order to mitigate piracy over the long-term.

There are three ways to engage Somalia. First, the U.S. should open dialogue with moderate Muslims in the new government. Second, it should re-evaluate its policy of counterterrorism. And finally, it should reach out to the Somali people to counter the spread of radicalism.

The U.S. has long refrained from engaging moderate Muslims in Somalia. In 2006, President Ahmed was head of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government. At the time, it was ruled by the Islamic Courts Union, a religiously-motivated political party that sought to introduce sharia law. The U.S. supported an Ethiopian invasion in December 2006, and Muslim leaders fled to Eritrea. When Sheikh Ahmed returned to join the government in December 2008, former Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Fraiser denounced his bid for the presidency.

The Obama administration should extend a hand to the new president. Some in the administration are skeptical of his plans to negotiate with extremists like al Shabaab, a terrorist organization that controls most of southern Somalia. But President Ahmed has support from moderate Muslims. He may be the only hope to restore order in a country that has witnessed 18 years of anarchy.

U.S. counterterrorism policy has been counterproductive. It is weakening the legitimacy of the government and spreads anti-Americanism. Pinpointed tomahawk missile attacks on terrorist targets have led to further unrest and political instability. The U.S. has been empowering local warlords to help find these targets, which has been taking power from the central government.

After the U.S. killed al Shabaab’s leader, Aden Hasi Ayro, in May 2008 from a naval ship off the coast of Somalia, attacks on humanitarian aid agencies and civil society organizations increased. Public support for al Shabaab also increased.

To reverse the wave of anti-Americanism, the U.S. should use public diplomacy. U.S. counterterrorism policy and support for the Ethiopian invasion stirred anti-American sentiments among the local population. The U.S. can counter these and more radical sentiments by developing Somali radio programs to target towns controlled by al Shabaab. There are more than 200,000 Somali refugees in the U.S. that can run these programs. Instead of launching cruise missiles, the U.S. can launch radio waves.

Today, Somalia remains ungoverned and uncontrolled. Piracy has decreased in the past few months due to the international coalition. But this coalition of warships has done little to change the lawless environment where piracy to thrives -- Somalia.

The U.S. can do its part by changing past policies, but it must seek out the wasps’ nest. Then, there will be a safe passage for ships through the Gulf of Aden. 

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