Sudanese President Bashir Indicted by the ICC

Today, a panel of judges from the International Criminal Court (ICC) passed down an indictment to President Omar al-Bashir on five charges of crimes against humanity and two charges of war crimes. The judges refrained from charging Mr. Bashir directly with genocide.

There is widespread concern that the security environment is going to change significantly. The North-South dispute, which has been tempered since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, might reemerge. Coupled with the crisis in Darfur and the ongoing contest over oil in Southern Kordofan, this has created a deadly cocktail of security concerns. The peace process might derail.

Sudan expert Alex van de Walle commented on the critical timing of this indictment in the BBC today, saying,

"In less than two years time, the people of South Sudan are expected to vote in a referendum on self-determination which has the potential, the likelihood indeed, of leading to the division of the country into two. And the first democratic elections in more than 20 years are expected this year. So it is already a pivotal turning-point in Sudan and there's a huge amount of political business that needs to be transacted if these two key events are to go ahead smoothly and without causing disruption and even a new war."

The long-term challenge for all actors inside Sudan will be to make sure the country does not return to war. Over the next few weeks it will be important to watch the reaction of the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Darfur-based rebel group, Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).

The Chairman of the SPLM, Salva Kiir Mayardi, issued a statement Tuesday prior to the ICC's announcement. He emphasized that whatever the decision, Sudan will slowly move towards peace, saying,

"This matter may hang on for sometime but it certainly will not mean the end of our country, the Sudan or government. We must move beyond tomorrow. And we will move beyond tomorrow. This episode should not be viewed as a crisis but as an opportunity to consolidate peace, justice and stability in our country."

Sudanese Response

The Sudan Tribune reported that the Sudanese government expelled 10 NGOs from the country in response to the ICCs ruling. The government claimed the groups were "involved in collaboration with the ICC investigation in Darfur crimes." NGOs that were asked to leave include: Oxfam, CARE, MSF-Holland, Mercy Corps, Save the Children, the Norweigan Refugee Council, the International Rescue Committee, Action Contre la Faim, Solidarites, and CHF International.

Also today the people of Khartoum expressed their support of President Bashir in mass demonstrations. According to one American who has been living in Khartoum for the past two years, the government set up specially designed areas inside the capital for protests. Mr. Bashir has significant backing from his people in the North. One protester said, "Mr. Ocampo is crazy if he thinks he will take our president. He is a tool of the West to attack Sudan."

Bashir has also received support from other Arab nations like Egypt, as well as some African ones. Even Sudanese who do not support the president still object to the ICC's ruling. One resident of Khartoum said,

“The issue is not whether Omar al-Bashir is guilty or not, and by all means any individual that is responsible for genocide should be legally charged; but this is an internal affair in a sovereign country with a judicial system. If the international community is concerned about the situation in Darfur, they should be even more concerned about the safely and the stability of Sudan as a whole once such a warrant has been issued."

The Debate

President Bashir's indictment sparked a heated debate over the issue of future peace and security. The New York Times printed two opposing opinions before the ICC's decision was released. One opinion, written by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, supported the indictment. Tutu wrote that the indictment

"…presents a stark choice for African leaders — are they on the side of justice or on the side of injustice? Are they on the side of the victim or the oppressor? The choice is clear but the answer so far from many African leaders has been shameful."

Tutu asks African leaders to look at this indictment using their moral judgment.

But the security situation in Sudan is highly unstable, and Bashir is the key to keeping the peace. This is the argument that Franklin Graham of the Samaritan’s Purse and the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association has presented. In his article entitled, "Put Peace Before Justice" he writes,

"…arresting Mr. Bashir now threatens to undo the progress his country has made. In 2005, Sudan’s government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement signed an accord ending the civil war in the south. The agreement paved the way for elections in the south later this year, as well as for a referendum on southern independence scheduled for 2011. The accord has brought benefits to Sudan, but it isn’t clear that they will last. Mr. Bashir, who fought members of his own party to approve the deal, is critical to the peace process."

Additionally, Darfur remains a humanitarian disaster. The government, who has been accused of committing acts of genocide by the United States, is in the process of negotiating a solution.

What Next?

According to the American source, there is some dissension in the Bashir government, but it remains very quiet. Rumors have been circulating about a possible coup.

The next few months are going to be interesting. It is likely that the national elections will be postponed and negotiations with the Darfur rebels will end. If the ICC goes through with the court procedures, President Bashir will most likely be tried in absentia because the ICC does not have an enforcement mechanism. Instead, it has ordered the Sudanese government to turn Bashir in.