Creation of Powersharing Government in Kenya: Promises and False Hopes Lead to Severe Challenges

On December 27, 2007, 82% of Kenya’s eligible voters went to the polls for the country’s fourth multi-party election. Analysts, observers, stakeholders and citizens all knew the election would be close. The Electoral Commission of Kenya reported President Mwai Kibaki the winner by a slim margin. The opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, claimed that he won the election. The election was not free and fair. Several election-monitoring organizations reported serious allegations of voting irregularities and vote buying. As a result, violence broke out and nearly 1,000 Kenyans were killed, with more than 350,000 people displaced. Luos, Odinga’s ethnic group, took to the streets to protest and attack people they felt were responsible for the vote rigging – the Kikuyus – President Kibaki’s ethnic group.

Five years of democratic reform hit a standstill as the two former political allies, President Kibaki of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) and Odinga of the Orange Democracy Movement (ODM), butted heads. Some analysts allege that the election was an “ethnic census”, pinning Kikuyus against Luos. Fear spread throughout the international community that ethnic civil war would soon break out. The country needed a negotiated settlement in order to quell the violence.

Finding a Solution

The negotiation process in Kenya began in late January. President Kibaki and opposition leader Odinga understood the gravity of the deteriorating political situation, and sought to reach a settlement. I. William Zartman, a scholar on negotiation processes, argues that mediation in political and armed conflicts typically begins when both parties have reached a point that they no longer want to continue fighting. This is known as a “mutually hurting stalemate,” and Zartman believes this is precisely the exact moment when the conflict “ripens” or presents itself to third parties for mediation.

Additionally the international community expressed deep interest in the political violence that spread throughout the country. Former president of Tanzania, Benjamin Mkapa was already present in Kenya for an election-monitoring mission with the Commonwealth Group. When the conflict began, he decided to stay, and he played a crucial role in contacting the group of African mediators known as the “Panel of Eminent African Personalities”. Former Secretary General of the United Nations Kofi Annan and former First Lady of South Africa and wife of Nelson Mandela, Graca Machel, arrived on January 22nd to direct negotiations between the government and ODM.

By the time Annan and Machel arrived, the country had already been torn apart. Rival politicians Martha Karua of the NARC and William Ruto of the ODM stoked the flames of ethnic competition. In speeches before and after the election, both politicians addressed ethnic advancement as the primary concern for winning.

One month of fighting resulted in a strongly divided political culture at the national level. Ethnic divisions between the Kikuyus and the Luos destroyed once peaceful towns and villages. Kisumu and Eldoret witnessed the worst cases of post-election ethnic violence and ethnic cleansing. In Eldoret, Kalenjin youth, part of the ODM coalition, set ablaze dozens of Kikuyus seeking shelter in a church.

Ending the violence and creating a legitimate government were the primary security concerns for the mediators. All parties, including the Kibaki and Odinga camps believed that agreement on a new government would immediately put a stop to the violence. Therefore, the negotiation talks concentrated on building an acceptable government.

Kofi Annan announced the agreement of a power-sharing government on February 27, 2008 and the Kenyan parliament adopted it on March 18th. Mr. Odinga became the prime minister, and the ODM and NARC would share forty cabinet seats.

Future Challenges

The creation of a new power-sharing government does not alone erase the hardened ethnic divisions that surfaced in January 2008, immediately following the election. The country’s deep-rooted security concerns are a serious hindrance to the future prospects of peace. One year after the two political parties signed the agreement, progress for peace has been limited. Below is a list of three main challenges that the new government still faces.

First, a return to ethnic violence is the primary security concern. As Scott Baldauf of Christian Science Monitor reports, “Hundreds of thousands of displaced people have been forced out of relief camps to return home, without any attempt to ensure that mutually suspicious communities don’t fight again.” Ethnic tensions may have simmered for now, but Kikuyus, living among Luos, might seek ethnic reprisal in the future.

Second the government must overcome the current political stalemate. As often happens in power-sharing governments, political divisions impede progress. The 2008 power-sharing agreement called for the new government to write a new constitution. This has yet to happen.

According to International Crisis Group Vice President Francois Grignon, “Kofi Annan has bought us three years of surface stability, without putting in structures for implementation. There were achievements. The violence stopped. The government was formed. You have a prime minister and the setup is working, and although sometimes painful to watch, you see a willingness to make it work. But the politicians, they need to show that they are making progress.” Or else, there will undoubtedly be a return to violence.

Finally, corruption remains a serious challenge to government legitimacy. Corruption has been a major challenge facing the country even before the 2007 elections. It is a challenge that most Kenyan politicians have decided not to address because many thrive in the environment of corruption that plagues the country.

Meanwhile, its citizens suffer. And the government’s legitimacy suffers. “Some 10 million Kenyans are at risk of starvation because government officials ignored warnings of a looming food storage, and in face sold some of Kenya’s food stocks to neighboring Sudan,” Baldauf reported.

These challenges will not go away in the near future. The nascent Kenyan government must address these issues before the next election cycle or the world will witness another disastrous breakdown of stability.